Using SVN (Pulled 17:30 28 Sept 2007 GMT) and 2.1.0-rc releases, I've discovered that using the $ symbol in a MySQL password causes the install to fail.
Errors indicated that (despite passing the first stage check) the password was not being submitted when mysql_connect was being called.
xera1 on #silverstripe recommended changing the following (line 591 in install.php):
"password" => "{$config['mysql']['password']}",
to
"password" => '{$config['mysql']['password']}',
This corrected the problem.